The RoundHouse | 2/13/2020 1:40:00 PM
WICHITA STATE (17-6, 5-5) at UCF (13-10, 4-7)
THURSDAY, FEB. 13, 2020 | 6:01 P.M. CT (7:01 P.M. ET)
ORLANDO, FLA. / ADDITION FINANCIAL ARENA
TV: ESPN2 (WatchESPN)
RADIO: KEYN 103.7 FM (GoShockers.com/Listen)
SERIES: WSU leads 4-0 (1-0 at UCF)
LAST: Jan. 25, 2020 in Wichita (WSU, 87-79)
The college basketball three-point line moved back to the international distance of 22 feet, 1 ¾ inches this season. The change was supposed to give offenses more space to operate by forcing defenses to extend their coverage.
That may be the result in a year or two, ESPN analyst Mark Adams said, as people adjust to the distance. This season, coaches are more willing to give up three-pointers and the result is tilting the game toward defense. That likely helps explain the trend in the American Athletic Conference, which is a defense-dominant group.
"It has shrunk the floor," said Adams, who will handle color duties on Wichita State's game at UCF on Thursday. "It has made it tougher to score. You see more defenses go behind screens and dare people to shoot."
Regardless of whether or not it's a chicken-egg discussion, the numbers tell us it is a good season for defense and a rough one for scorers in the American.
Those statistics loom over Wichita State's season and Thursday's critical game at UCF. The Shockers (17-6, 5-5) are trying to snap a three-game losing streak. The Knights (13-10, 4-7) have won two in a row and are, of course, solid on defense.
Stout defenses are the norm in the American and it is exacting a toll on the Shockers, who are shooting 28.8 percent in conference play from three-point range.
There are six American teams in the top 50 of the Pomeroy rankings for defense. Three more are in the top 80. In offensive efficiency, there are two top-50 teams and one more in the top 100. Last season, five American teams ranked in the top 50 for defense and seven in the top 100 for offense.
Naturally, the American's defensive direction starts with coaching.
From Wichita State's
Gregg Marshall to Houston's Kelvin Sampson and UCF's Johnny Dawkins, many American coaches identify with defense. Memphis coach Penny Hardaway is in second season and without much of a resume beyond recruiting. His Tigers rank 12
thnationally in Pomeroy's statistics and were No. 54 last season.
"You have a multitude of tough-mind programs led by tough-minded coaches," ESPN analyst Mark Wise said. "Most of the time when you talk about tough-minded, it's on the defensive end."
It is particularly difficult to score inside the arc against several American teams, which Adams connects to the extended three-point line and falling accuracy. In the past two seasons, eight American teams shot 33 percent or better behind the arc at 20-9. This season, it's five. According to Pomeroy, the national average accuracy rate of 33.3 is the lowest since 2013.
American defenses excel at shot-blocking.
"There's not a lot of space in the two-point area to score," Adams said. "You have more physical defenses inside the three-point line."
Memphis ranks second nationally with a block percentage of 16.9, according to Pomeroy. UConn and Houston are in the top 10 and Cincinnati joins them in the top 40.
That leads to defenses that starve teams of points around the rim – five American teams rank in the top 30 for opponent two-point percentage, including No. 1 Memphis (opponents shoot 39.1 percent) and No. 29 Wichita State (44.3). The national average is 49.3 percent, according to Pomeroy.
The variety of defenses in the American adds to the challenge. Tulsa's zone defense cuts off driving lanes and creates turnovers. Memphis presses. Houston plays sturdy half-court defense. Wichita State, even through scoring droughts, usually plays hard and smart on defense.
"They're really diverse coaches with diverse ideas," Adams said. "That has a lot to do with how hard it is to score in this league."
Wichita State guard Erik Stevenson could help the offense if he can regain his form from earlier this season. In non-conference play, he became Wichita State's leader with great passing and shooting. In conference play, he struggled against increased defensive attention.
"He needs to move better without the ball, get some catch-and-shoot open looks and not try to do too much," Marshall said. "He seems to just be forcing it now. Some of his shots are missing by not only inches, but by feet. He's a really good shooter when he's open. He's a very good passer. He's got good instincts and great vision."
Stevenson's scoring average peaked at 14.1 points after scoring 16 in a win at UConn on Dec. 12. Since that game, he reached double figures once and his average dropped to 11.5 points. He is 6 for 29 from three-point range in those seven games.
"I hope he can relax and we'd love for him to play the way he was earlier," Marshall said. "He's putting a lot of pressure on himself, and it's just not happening for him. Part of it is the other team. They get credit because they do a great job of taking what he does well away and force him into situations he isn't great in."
UCF freshman guard Darin Green struggled early his introduction to the American. He scored 12 points in his first four conference games and missed 10 of his 12 three-pointers.
Green's resurgence started with 12 points against Tulane and picked up speed in a loss to the Shockers on Jan. 25. He made 4 of 8 threes and scored 18 points, then his season high. That started a five-game stretch in which he averaged 14.6 points and shot 54.8 percent from behind the arc.
He capped that with 26 points in Sunday's win at Tulsa. He made 6 of 7 three-pointers.
Paul Suellentrop covers Wichita State Athletics and the American Athletic Conference for university Strategic Communications. Story suggestion? Contact him at paul.suellentrop@wichita.edu.